I have a piece in today’s Washington Post Monkey Cage based on my PhD research.
Here’s the lede:
With the conclusion of negotiations in Atlanta on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), we will soon have texts to look at, and, eventually, a vote in Congress. It’s the biggest deal in trade politics in several years. It will be widely covered in the media against the backdrop of the presidential election — where many candidates, both Republicans and Democrats, are touting their TPP opposition.
The vote on Fast Track Trade Promotion authority earlier this year showed that opponents of trade deals can get within striking distance of a win in the House of Representatives. In the final vote, it passed by only 219-211. The administration will have to hold on to roughly the number of votes it got then, and opponents will try to get a few to flip.
One sticking point will be the agreement’s chapter on investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS).
If you want to read the full thing, including this bizarro graph below that I made to look like a Christmas tree, head on over to the Monkey Cage site.